Prediction Markets, Explained
USA2028 lets you trade on the probability of future events. If you think something will happen, buy YES. If you think it will not happen, buy NO. When the event resolves, winning shares pay $1.00. It is that simple.
What Are Prediction Markets?
Prediction markets are financial markets where you trade contracts that pay out based on the outcome of real-world events. Instead of buying stocks or commodities, you buy shares in outcomes: Will a certain candidate win an election? Will AI be regulated by a specific date? Will the US lead the Olympic medal count?
The price of each share reflects the market's collective estimate of the probability of that outcome. A YES share trading at $0.73 means the market estimates a 73% chance of that event happening. Prediction markets have been shown to outperform polls, expert panels, and statistical models because they aggregate information from participants who have real money at stake — people trade more carefully when their own funds are on the line.
How Trading Works
Pick a Market
Browse 15+ categories including elections, the Olympics, AI policy, the economy, defense, and more. Every market has a clearly defined question and resolution criteria.
Buy YES or NO
Think it will happen? Buy YES shares. Think it will not? Buy NO shares. Prices range from $0.01 to $0.99, reflecting the current probability. You can sell at any time before resolution.
Collect $1.00
When the event resolves, winning shares pay $1.00 each. If you bought YES at $0.63 and the outcome is YES, you earn $0.37 profit per share (a 59% return). Losing shares pay $0.00.
Example Trade
Market: "Will the US lead the medal count at the 2028 LA Olympics?"
Your View: You believe the US will lead. YES shares are trading at $0.58 (58% probability).
Your Trade: You buy 100 YES shares for $58.00 total.
If YES: Your shares are worth $100.00. Profit: $42.00 (72% return).
If NO: Your shares are worth $0.00. Loss: $58.00.
Note: All trades are subject to a 2% platform fee. Settlement of winning positions is subject to a 5% fee.
How Pricing Works
USA2028 uses an Automated Market Maker (AMM) based on the Logarithmic Market Scoring Rule (LMSR). This means there is always liquidity — you can always buy or sell, even if no other trader is on the other side. The AMM adjusts prices based on demand: as more people buy YES, the YES price rises and the NO price falls, and vice versa.
YES and NO prices always sum to $1.00 (minus fees). This is because each market can only resolve to one outcome. If YES costs $0.73, then NO costs $0.27. The price of each share directly represents the market's estimated probability of that outcome occurring. When new information emerges — a poll, a policy announcement, a news event — traders update their positions, and prices adjust to reflect the new consensus probability in real time.
How Resolution Works
Every market on USA2028 has clearly defined resolution criteria published on its market page before trading begins. These criteria specify exactly what must happen for the market to resolve YES, NO, or VOID, and which authoritative source will be used to determine the outcome.
Resolution is handled through a multi-step process. First, oracle data from UMA Optimistic Oracle or Chainlink is used to propose a resolution. Then, our AI engine generates a resolution report citing evidence from authoritative sources (Associated Press for elections, official government data for economic indicators, IOC data for Olympics, etc.). Finally, a multi-signature administrative team confirms the resolution. If resolution criteria cannot be definitively met, the market is voided and all funds are returned.
The $USA28 Token
$USA28 is the utility token that powers the USA2028 ecosystem. It is not required to use the platform — you can trade using USDC or fiat deposits via Stripe — but holding $USA28 provides significant benefits within the ecosystem.
Reduced Trading Fees
Token holders receive up to 50% fee reduction on all trades, scaling with the amount of $USA28 held or staked.
Staking Rewards
Stake $USA28 to earn a share of platform trading fees, distributed as USDC rewards proportional to your stake.
Market Creation
Token holders can propose and vote on new prediction markets. Stake $USA28 to create markets and earn fees from trading activity on markets you create.
Governance
Participate in platform governance decisions including fee structures, category additions, and resolution dispute processes.
Getting Started
Create Your Account
Sign up with your email address or connect a Web3 wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet, WalletConnect). Account creation takes less than 30 seconds.
Complete KYC Verification
To deposit funds and trade, complete our Know Your Customer process. Upload a government-issued ID and a selfie. Verification typically completes in under 5 minutes through our partner Sumsub.
Fund Your Account
Deposit funds via credit card (Stripe), bank transfer, or cryptocurrency (USDC on Base). Crypto deposits are available instantly. Fiat deposits typically process within minutes.
Start Trading
Browse markets, read the AI-powered analysis, and place your first trade. Buy YES or NO shares on any active market. Your positions are tracked in real time in your portfolio.
Ready to make your first prediction?
Explore live markets across elections, the Olympics, AI policy, the economy, and more.