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Operation Epic Fury — Launched February 28, 2026. Real-time prediction markets tracking military, economic, and political outcomes.
US & Israel launch Operation Epic Fury against Iran
Supreme Leader Khamenei killed in targeted strike
Iran retaliates with ballistic missiles; Strait of Hormuz disrupted
Brent crude surges past $92/barrel
IRGC assumes command; threatens regional escalation
UN Security Council emergency session called
The US-Iran conflict represents the most significant geopolitical escalation since the 2003 Iraq invasion. Operation Epic Fury's decapitation of Iran's leadership has created a power vacuum that the IRGC is filling with autonomous retaliatory operations. Our models indicate a 35% probability of ceasefire before May 2026, with the primary obstacle being the absence of a clear Iranian negotiating authority.
Economic impact is severe and accelerating. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted 20% of global oil transit, pushing Brent crude toward $100/barrel. Our models assign 45% probability to a US recession in 2026, driven primarily by energy price inflation and consumer confidence collapse. The political fallout is equally significant — with only 27% of Americans supporting the strikes, the Iran conflict is projected to be the defining issue of the 2026 midterm elections.