Will Iran successfully close the Strait of Hormuz for more than 7 days?

Iran has deployed naval mines and anti-ship missiles across the strait, and multiple insurers have already declared the area a war-risk zone, causing most commercial traffic to halt voluntarily. The US Fifth Fleet is conducting minesweeping operations but the 21-mile-wide strait is extremely difficult to secure. Current shipping data shows transit volumes down roughly 70% from pre-conflict levels, approaching the 80% threshold. The 7-day sustained closure is the key question.

Last updated: Mar 2, 2026

Resolves YES if shipping tracking data (Lloyd's List Intelligence, MarineTraffic) shows commercial tanker transits through the Strait of Hormuz are reduced by 80%+ from the February 2026 pre-conflict average for 7 consecutive days.

Source: Lloyd's List Intelligence / MarineTraffic / EIA

Expected resolution: June 30, 2026