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The killing of Khamenei has created a genuine succession crisis unprecedented in the Islamic Republic's history. However, the IRGC retains enormous institutional power, controls the economy, and has a clear playbook for suppressing dissent (2009, 2019, 2022 protests). The regime's survival instinct is strong, and external military pressure historically consolidates authoritarian regimes rather than toppling them. The elevated probability reflects genuine uncertainty around the power vacuum, not a likely collapse.
Last updated: Mar 2, 2026
Resolves YES if the Islamic Republic governmental system (Supreme Leader, Guardian Council, IRGC political control) is dissolved, replaced, or ceases to exercise sovereign authority over Iran before January 1, 2027.
Source: Associated Press / Reuters / US State Department
Expected resolution: January 1, 2027
Outcome tokens pay $1.00 if the outcome resolves YES.
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