Will the US and China reach a major trade agreement before 2029?

US-China trade relations have deteriorated significantly, with bipartisan consensus favoring economic decoupling. Tariffs remain elevated and technology export controls have expanded. A comprehensive trade deal would require a fundamental shift in geopolitical strategy that neither party currently supports.

Last updated: Mar 2, 2026

Resolves YES if a bilateral trade agreement is signed that reduces tariffs on at least 50% of affected goods by at least 25% from current levels before January 20, 2029.

Source: Office of the US Trade Representative

Expected resolution: January 20, 2029