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The killing of Khamenei has decapitated Iran's command structure but also eliminated the most obvious negotiating counterpart for a ceasefire. With the IRGC now directing retaliatory strikes independently and domestic political pressure in Washington against escalation (only 27% approval for the strikes), both sides have incentives to de-escalate but lack clear diplomatic channels. Historical precedent from the 2020 Soleimani strike suggests tensions can cool within weeks, but the scale of Operation Epic Fury is orders of magnitude larger.
Last updated: Mar 2, 2026
Resolves YES if a bilateral ceasefire or cessation of hostilities is confirmed by both the US Department of State and Iranian government before May 1, 2026. Unilateral pauses do not qualify.
Source: US Department of State / Reuters / Associated Press
Expected resolution: May 1, 2026
Outcome tokens pay $1.00 if the outcome resolves YES.
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