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The Iran conflict has already displaced the economy as the top concern in snap polls taken since Operation Epic Fury. If the conflict persists through summer — which our models suggest is likely — it will dominate the midterm narrative the way Iraq dominated 2006. The combination of military casualties, $5+ gas prices, and ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruption creates an issue that touches every voter. The only scenario where Iran is NOT #1 is a rapid resolution followed by a separate domestic crisis.
Last updated: Mar 2, 2026
Resolves YES if the Iran conflict / Middle East war is the #1 issue in at least 2 of the 3 major pre-election polls (Gallup, Pew, CNN/SSRS) conducted in October 2026 when asking voters about the most important issue facing the country.
Source: Gallup / Pew Research Center / CNN Polling
Expected resolution: November 5, 2026
Outcome tokens pay $1.00 if the outcome resolves YES.
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