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Midterm elections historically favor the party not holding the White House, and with Republicans controlling the presidency, Democrats have a structural advantage. The Iran war and potential economic headwinds could amplify anti-incumbent sentiment. However, gerrymandered district maps and the narrow Republican majority make the math competitive but not a certainty for Democrats.
Last updated: Mar 2, 2026
Resolves YES if Democrats win 218 or more seats in the US House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections, based on certified results from all states. Any runoff elections must be completed.
Source: Clerk of the US House of Representatives and AP race calls
Expected resolution: January 15, 2027
Outcome tokens pay $1.00 if the outcome resolves YES.
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