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Midterm turnout has been rising in recent cycles, with 2018 nearly reaching 50%. However, no midterm in modern US history has crossed the 50% VEP threshold. The intense political environment and high-stakes Iran conflict could drive engagement, but midterm fatigue and lower salience of local races typically suppress turnout relative to presidential years.
Last updated: Mar 2, 2026
Resolves YES if the US Elections Project or equivalent academic source calculates 2026 midterm VEP turnout at 50.0% or higher. The 2018 midterms set a modern record at approximately 49.4%.
Source: US Elections Project (Dr. Michael McDonald) VEP turnout calculations
Expected resolution: March 1, 2027
Outcome tokens pay $1.00 if the outcome resolves YES.
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