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With only 27% of Americans supporting the Iran strikes and gas prices surging, Trump faces a dual-front approval headwind. His approval was already hovering around 44% before Operation Epic Fury. However, rally-around-the-flag effects could temporarily boost numbers, and Trump's base has proven remarkably sticky in previous crises. The key variable is whether sustained high gas prices and potential casualties erode support among non-college white voters who are his floor.
Last updated: Mar 2, 2026
Resolves YES if the RealClearPolitics or FiveThirtyEight aggregate approval rating for President Trump falls below 40.0% at any point before July 1, 2026.
Source: RealClearPolitics / FiveThirtyEight
Expected resolution: July 1, 2026
Outcome tokens pay $1.00 if the outcome resolves YES.
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