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The Iran conflict has become increasingly unpopular, particularly in suburban swing districts that determine House control. If the conflict is still active by November 2026, it will likely be a major drag on Republican candidates in competitive districts. However, isolating the Iran effect from other factors like the economy is inherently difficult, making this market hard to resolve cleanly.
Last updated: Mar 2, 2026
Resolves YES if reputable election analysts (Cook Political Report, Sabato Crystal Ball, or 538) attribute 10+ Republican House seat losses specifically to voter backlash over the Iran conflict, citing exit polls and district-level analysis. Resolution committee reviews multiple analyst assessments.
Source: Cook Political Report and Sabato Crystal Ball post-election analysis
Expected resolution: February 28, 2027
Outcome tokens pay $1.00 if the outcome resolves YES.
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