Will the US Congress vote on an AUMF against Iran before June 2026?

Multiple AUMF resolutions have already been introduced in both chambers, with bipartisan support for at least debating Congressional authorization. However, the administration is operating under Article II authority and the 2001 AUMF, creating no legal urgency for a vote. Speaker and Majority Leader may avoid a politically divisive vote, especially with only 27% public support for the strikes. The probability reflects the genuine tension between war powers accountability and political risk aversion.

Last updated: Mar 2, 2026

Resolves YES if the US House or Senate holds a recorded floor vote on an AUMF specifically authorizing military force against Iran before June 1, 2026. Committee votes alone do not qualify.

Source: Congressional Record / C-SPAN / congress.gov

Expected resolution: June 1, 2026