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The Iran conflict has introduced a classic oil shock into an economy that was already showing signs of deceleration. Historical precedent is clear: every major Middle East oil disruption since 1973 has either caused or significantly contributed to a US recession. The $90+ oil prices, potential $5 gas, disrupted supply chains, and financial market volatility create textbook recessionary conditions. However, the US economy entered the crisis from a position of relative strength, and the Fed has room to cut rates if needed.
Last updated: Mar 2, 2026
Resolves YES if the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee determines a recession began in 2026, or if BEA advance GDP estimates show two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth within calendar year 2026.
Source: NBER / Bureau of Economic Analysis
Expected resolution: June 1, 2027
Outcome tokens pay $1.00 if the outcome resolves YES.
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