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The Fed has begun a gradual cutting cycle, but the pace and terminal rate remain uncertain. Market-implied rates suggest convergence toward neutral, but inflation persistence could delay cuts. The long time horizon introduces substantial uncertainty about economic conditions.
Last updated: Mar 2, 2026
Resolves YES if the FOMC target federal funds rate upper bound is strictly below 3.00% as of market close on November 5, 2028.
Source: Federal Reserve Board
Expected resolution: November 5, 2028
Outcome tokens pay $1.00 if the outcome resolves YES.