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The US economy has shown resilience despite elevated interest rates. However, the historical base rate for a recession occurring in any given two-year period is approximately 30%. Leading indicators are mixed, with labor market strength offsetting manufacturing weakness.
Last updated: Mar 2, 2026
Resolves YES if the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) declares a recession that begins before January 1, 2028. NBER declaration may come after the date.
Source: National Bureau of Economic Research
Expected resolution: June 30, 2028
The yield curve has been sending mixed signals. I'm watching initial jobless claims closely for any deterioration.
Outcome tokens pay $1.00 if the outcome resolves YES.