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Brent has already surged past $92/bbl following the Strait of Hormuz disruption and the removal of approximately 20% of global seaborne oil transit capacity. With strategic petroleum reserves already partially depleted from 2022 releases and OPEC+ limited spare capacity, the path to $100 is short. The primary bearish case rests on a rapid ceasefire reopening the strait or a coordinated SPR release by IEA members.
Last updated: Mar 2, 2026
Resolves YES if ICE Brent crude front-month futures settle above $100.00/bbl on any trading day before June 1, 2026.
Source: ICE Futures Europe / Bloomberg / Reuters
Expected resolution: June 1, 2026
Outcome tokens pay $1.00 if the outcome resolves YES.
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