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US national debt is currently above $36 trillion and growing at approximately $1-2 trillion per year. At the current trajectory, crossing $40 trillion before 2029 is highly probable. No credible deficit reduction proposals are under serious consideration in Congress.
Last updated: Mar 2, 2026
Resolves YES if the total public debt outstanding reported by the US Treasury exceeds $40,000,000,000,000 at any point before January 1, 2029.
Source: US Treasury Department
Expected resolution: January 1, 2029
Outcome tokens pay $1.00 if the outcome resolves YES.