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The combination of Iranian mines, anti-ship missile batteries on the Iranian coastline, and war-risk insurance premiums makes a return to normal shipping extremely unlikely within 60 days. US Navy minesweeping operations are underway but the strait is narrow and mine clearance is historically slow work. Even after military threats are neutralized, insurance companies will maintain elevated war-risk premiums that effectively price out commercial traffic. The probability is declining as the conflict shows no signs of rapid resolution.
Last updated: Mar 2, 2026
Resolves YES if MarineTraffic or Lloyd's List Intelligence data shows average daily tanker transits through Hormuz return to within 20% of pre-conflict February 2026 levels for 5 consecutive days before May 1, 2026.
Source: MarineTraffic / Lloyd's List Intelligence / EIA
Expected resolution: May 1, 2026
Outcome tokens pay $1.00 if the outcome resolves YES.
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