Will the Iran crisis cause a global supply chain disruption comparable to COVID?

While the Iran conflict has disrupted Persian Gulf shipping and energy flows, a COVID-scale supply chain disruption is a much higher bar. COVID simultaneously shut down production, transportation, and demand patterns globally. The Iran crisis primarily affects energy shipping routes and Middle Eastern supply chains, which is significant but more geographically contained. Escalation to a wider regional conflict or closure of the Strait of Hormuz would dramatically increase this probability.

Last updated: Mar 2, 2026

Resolves YES if the NY Fed Global Supply Chain Pressure Index exceeds 3.0 standard deviations above its historical mean (its COVID peak was approximately 4.3 SD) at any point before December 31, 2027, AND the surge is primarily attributable to Iran-related disruptions as determined by the index methodology notes.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Global Supply Chain Pressure Index

Expected resolution: February 1, 2028