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The Iran conflict has introduced significant upward pressure on global oil prices, and sustained disruption of Persian Gulf shipping lanes could push gasoline well above $5 nationally. Even without hitting that threshold, rising energy costs are already a potent political issue. The dual-condition structure makes this market harder to resolve YES, but both conditions are plausible given current geopolitical trends.
Last updated: Mar 2, 2026
Resolves YES if BOTH conditions are met: (1) The AAA national average regular gasoline price exceeds $5.00/gallon at any point between August 5 and November 3, 2026, AND (2) exit polls show gas prices, energy costs, or cost of living as a top-3 voter issue.
Source: AAA Fuel Gauge Report for gas prices and CNN/Edison exit polls for voter issues
Expected resolution: December 15, 2026
Outcome tokens pay $1.00 if the outcome resolves YES.
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