Search for prediction markets by title
Prolonged military engagements have historically eroded support for the incumbent party. The Iran conflict, initiated under a Republican administration, carries significant risk for GOP candidates if casualties mount or the conflict remains unresolved by 2028. However, rally-around-the-flag effects and national security framing could mitigate damage in the short term.
Last updated: Mar 2, 2026
Resolves YES if exit polls show the Iran conflict was cited as a top-5 issue AND voters who cited it broke against Republicans by 10+ points. Based on major network exit polls and post-election academic analysis.
Source: CNN/Edison Research exit polls and AP VoteCast data
Expected resolution: December 31, 2028
Outcome tokens pay $1.00 if the outcome resolves YES.
No recent trades