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With no clear frontrunner and both parties in transition, the 2028 presidential race remains a near-toss-up. Historical patterns favor the opposition party after two consecutive terms, but economic conditions and candidate quality will be decisive. Current polling data is too early to be predictive.
Last updated: Mar 2, 2026
Resolves YES if the Republican nominee receives 270 or more Electoral College votes in the 2028 presidential election, as certified by Congress.
Source: Associated Press / Congress certification
Expected resolution: November 10, 2028
The historical pattern strongly favors the opposition party, but candidate quality matters more than cycles. Keep an eye on the primary field.
Economic conditions 12 months before the election are the best predictor. Everything else is noise at this point.
Don't sleep on the Senate races. The coattail effect could be massive in 2028 depending on turnout dynamics.
Outcome tokens pay $1.00 if the outcome resolves YES.