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Biden carried 25 states plus DC in 2020, encompassing the vast majority of the Democratic talent pool. Most prominent Democratic governors and senators who could mount a presidential campaign reside in blue states. The probability is naturally high given the base rate.
Last updated: Mar 2, 2026
Resolves YES if the 2028 Democratic nominee officially claims residency in a state won by Biden in 2020 at the time of their nomination.
Source: Democratic National Committee / FEC filings
Expected resolution: August 25, 2028
Outcome tokens pay $1.00 if the outcome resolves YES.