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With Brent already above $92/bbl and the Strait of Hormuz disrupted, the floor for oil prices has shifted dramatically upward. Even in a rapid ceasefire scenario, the physical supply disruption, depleted strategic reserves, and rebuilt risk premium will sustain elevated prices for months. The only path below $80 requires: conflict resolution + Hormuz reopening + demand destruction from global recession. All three simultaneously is a low-probability scenario. OPEC+ also has no incentive to increase supply into a high-price environment.
Last updated: Mar 2, 2026
Resolves YES if ICE Brent crude front-month futures do not settle below $80.00/bbl on any trading day between March 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026. A single close below $80 resolves NO.
Source: ICE Futures Europe / Bloomberg
Expected resolution: January 2, 2027
Outcome tokens pay $1.00 if the outcome resolves YES.
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