Will an AI system pass a medical licensing exam and be approved for clinical use by 2027?

AI systems have already demonstrated the ability to pass the USMLE, with GPT-4 achieving passing scores in 2023. The bottleneck is FDA approval for clinical use, which involves a rigorous review process focused on safety and efficacy in real clinical settings. Several AI diagnostic tools have received narrow FDA clearances, but broad clinical approval matching the scope of a licensed physician remains years away.

Last updated: Mar 2, 2026

Resolves YES if an AI system BOTH (1) achieves a passing score on all three steps of the USMLE or equivalent national medical licensing examination AND (2) receives FDA 510(k) clearance, De Novo authorization, or PMA approval for clinical diagnostic or treatment use by December 31, 2027. The same system need not satisfy both conditions.

Source: USMLE scoring reports and FDA 510(k)/PMA approval database

Expected resolution: February 1, 2028