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New York imposed a moratorium on new proof-of-work mining permits using fossil fuels in 2022, the most aggressive state-level action to date. However, the political trend has shifted toward a more crypto-friendly posture nationally, and a full mining ban faces both constitutional commerce clause challenges and opposition from the mining industry's growing political influence. While environmental concerns persist, the probability of an outright ban (not a moratorium) is low given the current political environment.
Last updated: Mar 2, 2026
Resolves YES if any US state enacts a law or regulation that prohibits or effectively bans commercial Bitcoin mining operations before January 1, 2028. Temporary moratoriums that have since expired do not count; the ban must be in effect.
Source: State Legislature Records / Regulatory Agency Orders
Expected resolution: January 15, 2028
Outcome tokens pay $1.00 if the outcome resolves YES.
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