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The political environment in the US is strongly opposed to a CBDC. The current administration has explicitly stated opposition, and multiple bills have been introduced to prohibit the Fed from issuing a digital dollar. Even the Fed itself has been cautious, stating it would not proceed without congressional authorization. The combination of political opposition, privacy concerns, and the lack of a clear use case in the US makes a CBDC launch by 2028 extremely unlikely.
Last updated: Mar 2, 2026
Resolves YES if the Federal Reserve launches a CBDC (retail or wholesale) before January 1, 2028. Pilot programs limited to a small group of institutions count if they involve real transactions.
Source: Federal Reserve Official Announcements / Federal Register
Expected resolution: January 15, 2028
Outcome tokens pay $1.00 if the outcome resolves YES.
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