Will Ethereum transition to a deflationary supply permanently before 2028?

Ethereum became deflationary during periods of high network activity post-Merge (September 2022), when gas fees burned by EIP-1559 exceeded new issuance. However, the transition to Dencun and L2 scaling has reduced mainnet gas fees, making sustained deflation harder to achieve. Whether Ethereum remains deflationary for four consecutive quarters depends heavily on network activity levels, which correlate with market cycles. A sustained bull market driving on-chain activity could achieve this, but the current fee dynamics make it uncertain.

Last updated: Mar 2, 2026

Resolves YES if Ethereum total supply shows a net decrease for four consecutive quarters ending before January 1, 2028, as tracked by ultrasound.money or etherscan.io.

Source: Etherscan.io / Ultrasound.money Supply Tracker

Expected resolution: January 15, 2028