Will the 2028 LA Olympics see a major security incident?

Major security incidents at Olympics are extremely rare. The US security apparatus for major events is among the most robust in the world. While threats exist, the base rate for major Olympic security incidents since 2000 is very low. Massive security investments in LA infrastructure are underway.

Last updated: Mar 2, 2026

Resolves YES if a deliberate security incident during the Games period (opening to closing ceremony) results in casualties, significant evacuation, or cancellation of events. Does not include natural disasters.

Source: Major news network consensus

Expected resolution: August 15, 2028