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Turkey shares a 534km border with Iran and hosts Incirlik Air Base, which may be involved in US operations. Iranian ballistic missile accuracy is imprecise enough that stray munitions could strike Turkish territory accidentally. Additionally, Iranian-backed militias in Iraq could target US forces at bases in Turkey. The probability reflects the risk of accidental escalation or spillover more than deliberate Iranian targeting of NATO territory, which would trigger Article 5 — a catastrophic escalation Iran wants to avoid.
Last updated: Mar 2, 2026
Resolves YES if an Iranian weapon (missile, drone, or other munition) strikes the sovereign territory of any NATO member state before July 1, 2026. Accidental overflight without detonation does not qualify.
Source: NATO / Department of Defense / Associated Press
Expected resolution: July 1, 2026
Outcome tokens pay $1.00 if the outcome resolves YES.
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