Will the US increase defense spending above 4% of GDP before 2029?

Current US defense spending is approximately 3.4% of GDP. Reaching 4% would require a massive increase of ~$100B+ above current levels. While geopolitical tensions support higher defense budgets, competing fiscal priorities and existing deficit concerns make this magnitude of increase unlikely without a major military escalation.

Last updated: Mar 2, 2026

Resolves YES if the Department of Defense budget authority exceeds 4.0% of GDP for any fiscal year ending before October 1, 2029, per CBO data.

Source: Congressional Budget Office

Expected resolution: January 15, 2029