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Even leading autonomous vehicle companies (Waymo, Cruise) operate in fewer than 10 cities. State-by-state regulatory approval, weather variability, and infrastructure requirements make 50-state coverage by 2029 virtually impossible. The industry is still in early commercial deployment.
Last updated: Mar 2, 2026
Resolves YES if any single company offers a commercially available SAE Level 4+ autonomous vehicle service in all 50 states before January 1, 2029. Service must be available to the general public, not just test programs.
Source: Company announcements verified by NHTSA data
Expected resolution: January 1, 2029
Outcome tokens pay $1.00 if the outcome resolves YES.