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AGI claims are fundamentally subjective since there is no consensus definition. OpenAI has built AGI milestones into its corporate structure, creating incentive to declare achievement. Rapid capability gains in frontier models suggest significant progress, but expert consensus is that true AGI remains further away than optimistic timelines suggest. The resolution criteria favoring claims over objective benchmarks raises the probability somewhat.
Last updated: Mar 2, 2026
Resolves YES if the CEO or equivalent executive of OpenAI, Google DeepMind, Anthropic, or Meta AI officially and publicly claims their organization has achieved AGI, defined as AI that matches or exceeds human-level performance across virtually all cognitive tasks. Blog posts, press releases, or official statements count. Informal social media posts do not.
Source: Official company announcements, blog posts, and press releases
Expected resolution: February 1, 2029
Outcome tokens pay $1.00 if the outcome resolves YES.
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