Will a Category 6 hurricane hit the US mainland before 2029?

While Category 6 is not yet an official designation, climate scientists have proposed it for storms exceeding 192 mph, and warming ocean temperatures are producing increasingly intense hurricanes. Recent seasons have seen rapid intensification events. However, the specific combination of Category 6-level intensity AND US mainland landfall is rare — most extreme intensification occurs over open water and storms typically weaken before landfall. The conditional probability of both criteria being met is relatively low.

Last updated: Mar 2, 2026

Resolves YES if a hurricane with sustained winds exceeding 192 mph (Category 6 threshold proposed by researchers) makes US mainland landfall before January 1, 2029, OR if the NHC formally creates a Category 6 designation and a qualifying storm hits the US.

Source: National Hurricane Center (NHC) / NOAA

Expected resolution: January 15, 2029