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US EV market share reached approximately 9% in 2024, growing steadily but well below the 30% threshold. Tesla price cuts have expanded the addressable market, and new models from legacy automakers are adding volume. However, the growth rate has slowed compared to earlier projections, and political headwinds including potential rollback of EPA tailpipe rules create uncertainty. Reaching 30% by 2028 requires roughly tripling current penetration in 3 years, which is ambitious but not impossible given the S-curve adoption model.
Last updated: Mar 2, 2026
Resolves YES if BEV sales exceed 30% of total new passenger vehicle sales in the US for any calendar quarter before January 1, 2028, as reported by Cox Automotive, Kelley Blue Book, or the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Source: Cox Automotive / Kelley Blue Book / Bureau of Economic Analysis
Expected resolution: January 15, 2028
Outcome tokens pay $1.00 if the outcome resolves YES.
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