Will the US rejoin Paris Agreement emission targets before 2028?

The US withdrew from the Paris Agreement under the current administration, continuing a pattern of partisan oscillation. Rejoining would require either a change in administration or a dramatic policy reversal. Even under a Democratic president, the formal process of recommitting takes time, and congressional opposition complicates any binding commitments. The probability is conditioned primarily on the 2028 election outcome and its timing relative to the resolution date.

Last updated: Mar 2, 2026

Resolves YES if the US formally submits a Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to the UNFCCC or re-enters the Paris Agreement framework with binding emission targets before January 1, 2028.

Source: UNFCCC / US State Department

Expected resolution: January 15, 2028