Will a major tech company be broken up by antitrust action before 2029?

The DOJ has won its antitrust case against Google and proposed structural remedies. However, court-ordered breakups are extraordinarily rare in US antitrust history and typically take years to implement through appeals. While the Google case is the closest to a structural remedy in decades, the appeals process could easily extend beyond 2028. Other major tech antitrust cases are at earlier stages.

Last updated: Mar 2, 2026

Resolves YES if a US federal court orders a structural remedy (divestiture, breakup, or spin-off of a major business unit) against Apple, Google/Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, or Microsoft before January 1, 2029. Behavioral remedies (fines, consent decrees) alone do not count. Court order must be issued, even if under appeal.

Source: US federal court orders and DOJ/FTC enforcement actions

Expected resolution: February 1, 2029