Will a new pandemic (non-COVID) cause more than 10,000 US deaths before 2029?

While pandemic risk is persistent and experts warn about avian influenza (H5N1), novel coronaviruses, and other emerging pathogens, the specific threshold of 10,000 US deaths from a single new pathogen within 3 years is relatively high. The US has improved surveillance and response capabilities post-COVID, though political polarization could hamper public health response. H5N1 bird flu represents the most credible current threat, but human-to-human transmission remains limited.

Last updated: Mar 2, 2026

Resolves YES if the CDC reports more than 10,000 US deaths attributed to a novel infectious disease (not SARS-CoV-2 or its variants) emerging after January 1, 2026, before January 1, 2029.

Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)

Expected resolution: January 15, 2029