Will a private company establish a permanent Moon base before 2029?

No private company has yet successfully landed anything on the Moon independently (though several attempts are underway). Establishing a permanent base requires multiple successful landings, habitat deployment, power systems, life support (if crewed), and ongoing resupply — a capability that does not exist even for government programs. NASA's Artemis program plans to begin building the Gateway lunar station and surface infrastructure, but this is a multi-decade effort. A private permanent Moon base by 2029 is essentially impossible.

Last updated: Mar 2, 2026

Resolves YES if a private company establishes a base on the Moon designed and confirmed for permanent/indefinite operation (robotic or crewed) before January 1, 2029. Temporary lander missions or rover deployments do not count.

Source: Company Official Announcements / NASA / IAF

Expected resolution: January 15, 2029