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Mars launch windows occur approximately every 26 months, with the next windows in late 2026 and early 2029. Starship is still in early orbital test flights and has not yet demonstrated orbital refueling, long-duration deep space travel, or Mars entry/descent/landing capabilities. Even SpaceX's ambitious timelines suggest an uncrewed Mars mission no earlier than the 2028-2029 launch window, with landing unlikely to occur before January 2029. The engineering challenges of Mars EDL (entry, descent, and landing) for a vehicle of Starship's size are unprecedented.
Last updated: Mar 2, 2026
Resolves YES if a SpaceX Starship (crewed or uncrewed) successfully lands on Mars before January 1, 2029, confirmed by SpaceX telemetry and independent corroboration.
Source: SpaceX Official Communications / NASA / ESA
Expected resolution: January 15, 2029
Outcome tokens pay $1.00 if the outcome resolves YES.
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