Will space tourism cost less than $100,000 per seat before 2029?

Virgin Galactic's current suborbital price is $450,000 per seat, and Blue Origin's New Shepard reportedly charges $200,000-$300,000. Reaching sub-$100K would require roughly a 60-80% price reduction, which typically comes from dramatically increased flight cadence and manufacturing scale. Neither company has demonstrated the flight rates needed to drive such cost reductions. SpaceX's Starship could theoretically enable lower-cost orbital tourism eventually, but not at consumer-accessible prices by 2029.

Last updated: Mar 2, 2026

Resolves YES if a commercially available space tourism flight (reaching the Karman line or higher) is offered for less than $100,000 per seat before January 1, 2029, with at least one paying customer having completed the flight at that price.

Source: Company Pricing Announcements / Customer Flight Records

Expected resolution: January 15, 2029