Will US defense spending exceed 4.5% of GDP before 2029?

Current US defense spending hovers around 3.4% of GDP, meaning a jump to 4.5% would require roughly a 30% real increase — historically possible only during major conflicts or Cold War buildups. Bipartisan support for increased defense spending exists, driven by China competition and Russia threats, but fiscal constraints and competing domestic priorities create strong headwinds. The gap from 3.4% to 4.5% is substantial absent a major conflict escalation.

Last updated: Mar 2, 2026

Resolves YES if the OMB or CBO reports that DoD budget authority exceeded 4.5% of GDP in any fiscal year ending before January 1, 2029.

Source: Office of Management and Budget (OMB) / Congressional Budget Office (CBO)

Expected resolution: March 31, 2029