The New Normal
The United States is experiencing a measurable increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. The past decade has produced more billion-dollar weather disasters than any comparable period in recorded history. Climate models project this trend to continue and intensify through 2028 and beyond, creating significant risks for infrastructure, public health, and economic stability.
The intersection of climate change with population growth in vulnerable areas, particularly the Sun Belt and coastal regions, amplifies the human and economic impacts of extreme weather events.
Hurricane Risk Assessment
The Atlantic hurricane season outlook through 2028 suggests continued elevated activity. Ocean surface temperatures in the Main Development Region remain above average, providing the thermal energy that fuels tropical cyclone development. The probability of a Category 5 hurricane making US landfall in any given year has increased over the past two decades.
Our prediction market on a Category 6 designation (a proposed new category for storms exceeding current Category 5 thresholds) reflects the growing scientific discussion about whether the existing hurricane intensity scale adequately captures the most extreme storms.
Heat Wave Projections
Record-breaking heat events are becoming routine across the southern and western United States. Phoenix, Las Vegas, and other Sun Belt cities are experiencing heat waves of unprecedented duration and intensity. These events stress power grids, threaten public health (particularly among vulnerable populations), and create cascading infrastructure failures.
The probability of the US experiencing its hottest year on record during 2026 or 2027 is substantial, reflecting the combination of long-term warming trends and natural climate variability.
Water Crisis Risks
The western United States faces chronic water scarcity that has escalated from a long-term concern to an acute crisis in several regions. The Colorado River system continues to decline, threatening water supplies for 40 million people across seven states. Groundwater depletion in agricultural regions is accelerating, creating risks for food production.
Our prediction market assigns a 25% probability to a major US city facing a severe water crisis before 2028. The most at-risk cities include those dependent on the Colorado River system and rapidly growing Sun Belt communities that are outpacing their water infrastructure.
Economic Impact
Extreme weather events impose enormous economic costs through property damage, infrastructure repair, agricultural losses, and insurance market disruption. The annual cost of weather-related disasters in the US has exceeded $100 billion in multiple recent years, a figure that is trending upward.
The insurance industry is adapting by raising premiums, restricting coverage, and in some cases withdrawing from high-risk markets entirely. These dynamics create secondary economic effects that compound the direct costs of extreme weather.