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The US has set temperature records with increasing frequency, and the long-term warming trend makes new records statistically more likely each year. However, US-specific annual temperatures are more volatile than global averages due to regional weather patterns, jet stream position, and the polar vortex. Whether 2026 or 2027 specifically beats the record depends on ENSO phase and synoptic patterns that are only predictable months in advance. The probability is above 50% given the warming trend but far from certain.
Last updated: Mar 2, 2026
Resolves YES if NOAA's annual US climate summary reports that either 2026 or 2027 set a new record for the highest average annual temperature in the contiguous United States.
Source: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information
Expected resolution: February 28, 2028
Outcome tokens pay $1.00 if the outcome resolves YES.
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