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Geopolitical tensions between the US, Russia, and China create non-trivial boycott risk, though full Olympic boycotts have become rare since the 1980s. Russia's sports ban complicates the picture. North Korea, which boycotted Tokyo 2020 (citing COVID), could again abstain. However, most nations view Olympic participation as too valuable to sacrifice for political statements, keeping the probability relatively low.
Last updated: Mar 2, 2026
Resolves YES if at least one nation with an IOC-recognized National Olympic Committee officially announces a boycott of the 2028 Olympics before or during the games.
Source: IOC / National Olympic Committee Statements
Expected resolution: August 12, 2028
Outcome tokens pay $1.00 if the outcome resolves YES.
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