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Historically, at least one state flips between presidential election cycles. Given the extremely narrow margins in multiple swing states in 2024 and the likelihood of different candidates and political conditions in 2028, it would be unusual for zero states to change hands. The base rate for at least one state flipping is very high.
Last updated: Mar 2, 2026
Resolves YES if the certified 2028 presidential election results show at least one state or DC voting for a different party than it did in 2024. Third-party wins in a state also count as a flip.
Source: US Election Assistance Commission and state-certified results
Expected resolution: January 15, 2029
Outcome tokens pay $1.00 if the outcome resolves YES.
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