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Arizona has been one of the most competitive states in recent elections, with razor-thin margins in multiple statewide races. The outcome will depend heavily on candidate quality, national political winds, and the specific dynamics of the 2026 cycle. Demographic trends favor gradual Democratic gains, but Republican strength in exurban areas remains a counterweight.
Last updated: Mar 2, 2026
Resolves YES if the party affiliation of the Arizona Senator elected in 2026 is different from the party holding the seat going into the election. Independents who caucus with a party are classified by their caucus affiliation.
Source: AP-called race result and Arizona Secretary of State certification
Expected resolution: December 15, 2026
Outcome tokens pay $1.00 if the outcome resolves YES.
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