Will the Florida Governor race be decided by less than 5 points in 2026?

Florida has shifted significantly Republican in recent elections, with DeSantis winning the 2022 gubernatorial race by nearly 20 points. The state's voter registration has also swung decisively toward Republicans. Without an exceptional Democratic candidate and a very favorable national environment, a competitive race seems unlikely, though Florida's history of close elections before 2022 provides some basis for optimism.

Last updated: Mar 2, 2026

Resolves YES if the final certified margin in the 2026 Florida gubernatorial general election is less than 5.0 percentage points. Based on the Florida Division of Elections certified results.

Source: Florida Division of Elections certified results

Expected resolution: December 15, 2026