Will global temperatures exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels before 2028?

2024 was the hottest year on record, with the annual average approaching 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. The combination of ongoing greenhouse gas emissions and the transition from El Nino to La Nina patterns makes the trajectory clear. While natural variability year-to-year can cause temporary dips, the underlying trend makes breaching 1.5°C for a full calendar year increasingly likely. Climate scientists widely expect this threshold to be crossed for a full year within the next few years.

Last updated: Mar 2, 2026

Resolves YES if any major climate monitoring organization (NOAA, NASA GISS, Copernicus/ERA5, or UK Met Office HadCRUT) reports that the global mean surface temperature exceeded 1.5°C above the 1850-1900 baseline for a full calendar year before January 1, 2028.

Source: NOAA / NASA GISS / Copernicus Climate Change Service

Expected resolution: March 15, 2028