Will healthcare costs exceed 20% of US GDP before 2028?

US healthcare spending has been on an inexorable upward trajectory, reaching 17.3% of GDP in 2023. CMS actuaries project spending will reach approximately 19.7% of GDP by 2031. However, reaching 20% before 2028 would require acceleration beyond projections, possibly from a health crisis, rapid GLP-1 drug spending growth, or a GDP contraction that artificially inflates the percentage. The combination of aging demographics, drug pricing trends, and chronic disease burden creates upward pressure, but 20% by 2028 requires faster growth than projected.

Last updated: Mar 2, 2026

Resolves YES if the CMS National Health Expenditure Accounts report total health spending exceeding 20.0% of GDP for any year with data published before January 1, 2028.

Source: CMS Office of the Actuary — National Health Expenditure Accounts

Expected resolution: January 15, 2028